AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents lower at the moment. Most of the Midwest has been hit by rain so far this week, with more expected in the coming days. This morning’s EIA report showed ethanol production up another 11,000 barrels per day in the week that ended on June 15. Weekly production of 1.064 million bpd was the largest since mid- February. Ethanol stocks shrunk 527,000 barrels to 21.647 million barrels in that week. Export sales estimates ahead of tomorrow's report are showing 0.7 to 1 MMT in old crop sales and 150,000 to 400,000 MT in new crop sales. A South Korean feed mill purchased 138,000 MT of optional origin corn in Tuesday's tender.

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.52 3/4, down 1 cent,

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.62 1/4, down 1 cent,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.74 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.83 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are showing fractional gains at midday. Front Month soy meal is down 90 cents/ton, with soybean oil up 35 points. Wet weather across the Plains and trade concerns continue to weigh on the market. Gains are helped by bargain hunting and shorts taking profits. Analysts are expecting Thursday's Export Sales report to show old crop soybean sales at 300,000 to 600,000 MT, with new crop seen at 100,000 to 400,000 MT. Soy meal is estimated at 50,000 to 300,000 MT in sales, as 0-30,000 MT are seen for soy oil. China sold 77,782 MT of 2013 soybeans from state reserves in an auction on Wednesday, totaling 25.4% of the offered amount.

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $8.89 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.94 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $9.01, up 3/4 cent,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $9.11 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal is at $333.60, down $0.90

Jul 18 Soybean Oil is at $29.20, up $0.35

Wheat

Wheat futures are currently steady to 6 1/2 cents higher at midday. Rains in the forecast for KS could keep combines out of the field sometime over the next week. The average trade estimate ahead of Thursday morning's USDA Export Sales report is for all wheat new crop sales at 250,000 to 500,000 MT. That would be within range of last week's total. Ukraine's Ag Ministry estimates 41 MMT of grains for export in the 17/18 MY (through the end of June), with 38.6 MMT shipped so far. That total includes 16.8 MMT wheat, down 2.6% from last year.

Jul 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.84 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.84 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.53 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are 20 to 70 cents higher so far on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures are mixed, with nearby Aug down 30 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was up 20 cents from the previous day at $141.48 on June 18. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower again on Wednesday morning. Choice boxes were down 30 cents to $219.40, with Select boxes $1.39 lower at $200.91. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was shown at 238,000 head through Tuesday by the USDA. That is even with last week and 3,000 head above last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction sold 1,469 of the total 2,125 head offered at an average price of $110. A Reuters survey shows expectations ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report (released at 2:00 p.m. CDT) are for May marketing to be up 5.1% from last year at 2.051 million head.

Jun 18 Cattle are at $109.000, up $0.475,

Aug 18 Cattle are at $106.625, up $0.200,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $109.200, up $0.700,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.325, down $0.300

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.700, down $0.200

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.475, up $0.075

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are showing sharp losses at midday, with Aug down the limit. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.85 to $84.05 on June 15. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was reported at $84.87 in the Wednesday AM report, up 16 cents. The loin and picnic primal cuts were reported lower. The national base carcass price was down 67 cents on Wednesday morning, averaging $82.46. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 863,000 head so far this week. That is down 30,000 head from last week on lower Monday slaughter but up 2,000 head from a year ago.

Jul 18 Hogs are at $79.575, down $2.300,

Aug 18 Hogs are at $74.725, down $3.000

Oct 18 Hogs are at $60.775, down $2.400

Cotton

Cotton futures are mixed on Wednesday. Nearby July is down 10 points, with back months 49 to 62 points higher. Crude oil is up 26 cents at the moment, with the US dollar index steady. The weekly Export sales report will be release on Thursday morning. The Cotlook A index was down 190 points from day prior at 96.95 cents/lb on June 19. The weekly AWP is currently at 82.99 cents/lb for this week, and will be updated on Thursday. China sold 9,200 MT of cotton from state reserves on Wednesday, totaling 30.76% of the amount offered.

Jul 18 Cotton is at 83.22, down 10 points,

Oct 18 Cotton is at 85.44, up 62 points

Dec 18 Cotton is at 84.32, up 50 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 84.220, up 49 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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