AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures ended the Tuesday session with 2 to 4 1/2 cent gains in most contracts. They found support from short covering following Monday’s lower than expected condition ratings. The 6-10 day outlook shows drier than normal conditions for the three I states (IA, IL, and IN). The 63% silking for this week is the fastest pace (excluding the 2012 drought) dating back to 1990. Condition ratings in IA were up 1 point and 4 points higher in NE, with ND and TN the only other states to report better conditions wk/wk. Recent losses in corn have caused basis to strengthen, as DTN reported the average cash price at $3.16 1/2 on Monday afternoon 14 1/2 cents lower than a year ago. That brought the national average basis to -25 1/4 cents, 18 3/4 cents stronger than the same day last year!

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.46 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.59 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.71 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents

May 19 Corn closed at $3.78 1/4, up 4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures posted 9 to 10 cent gains in most contracts on Tuesday. Short covering was led by a decline in crop condition ratings and continued strong export activity for this time of year. Nearby soy meal was steady, with soy oil 9 points higher. The 8-14 day outlook shows odds for cooler than normal temps throughout much of the growing region next week. Monday’s USDA Crop Progress indicated most states along the Corn Belt were nearly twice as far along setting pods than their average pace. It also showed condition ratings 4 points higher in NE, with IL up 2, while IN was down 4 and IA 1 point lower. The national average cash price for soybeans was reported at $7.69 1/2 by DTN on Monday afternoon. That was $1.50 lower than last year, showing an average basis of -60 cents, 5 1/4 cents stronger than the same time last a year ago.

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $8.39 1/2, up 10 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.45, up 9 3/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.55 1/4, up 9 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.74 3/4, up 9 1/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal closed at $329.10, unch,

Aug 18 Soybean Oil closed at $27.73, up $0.09

Wheat

Wheat futures saw 5 to 6 1/4 cent gains in most MPLS and KC contracts on Turnaround Tuesday, with CBT 7 to 9 1/4 cents higher. The winter wheat harvest is nearly complete in KS, with TX at 95%, CO 80%, and NE 62% harvested. The spring wheat crop was at or ahead of normal pace for heading in all six major states. Condition ratings for the spring crop were lower in MN, MT, and ID, with the 8-14 day outlook forecasting drier than normal weather for those states. Overall spring wheat ratings are 90 points above this point last year. Japan is seeking 57,914 MT of wheat from the US in their weekly MOA tender, which closes on Thursday.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.97 3/4, up 9 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.90 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.33 1/4, up 5 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures closed the Tuesday session with most contracts steady to 50 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were down 30 cents to $1.10 in the nearby contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was up 10 cents from the previous day at $148.37 on 7/16. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 63 cents to $204.39, while Select boxes were $1.19 higher at $196.86. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 236,000 head through Tuesday. That was up 10,000 from the same week last year but down 3,000 head vs. last week on revised Monday slaughter. A Reuters poll of analysts shows estimates for June placements to be 0.6% larger than last year at 1.781 million head on Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Marketings are seen at 2.011 million head, up 1.1% from a year ago.

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $106.425, down $0.500,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $108.500, down $0.150,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $112.625, down $0.075,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.275, down $1.100

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.700, down $0.750

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.000, down $0.625

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures settled with losses of $1.30 to $1.80 on Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 57 cents on July 13, to $80.34. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 83 cents on Tuesday afternoon at $84.20. The butt and picnic were the only primal cuts reported lower. The national base carcass price was $71.86 in the Tuesday PM report, down 90 cents from the day prior. USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter at 892,000 head through Tuesday. That is 39,000 head above last year, but down 9,000 head from the week previous.

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $67.900, down $1.300,

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $52.200, down $1.800

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $47.475, down $1.700

Cotton

Cotton futures were 32 to 63 points higher on the day. A slight decline in overall condition reported Monday and continued forecasts for dryness in TX supported the market. Gains were limited by a sharply higher US dollar, up 456 points. NASS reported last night that TX has 23% of the crop setting bolls, up 6% from the average, with GA lagging by 1% at 36%. Condition ratings were tallied at 267 points in TX, down 1, as OK was down 50 at 258. The Cotlook A index was down 75 points from the previous week to 97.70 cents/lb on July 16. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 76.17 cents/lb through next Thursday, up 1.58 cents from the week prior.

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 89.200, up 32 points,

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 88.340, up 57 points

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 88.170, up 63 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
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