Turner’s Take Podcast: CBOT Range Bound – July 16, 2019
Turner's Take Podcast

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The CBOT remains range bound as traders debate supply (acres and yield) and demand (exports and feed).  The market will have little guidance from the USDA until the August 12th WASDE report.  Weather forecasts have temps getting cooler with more precipitations.  The US will have a smaller corn and soybean crop this year, but the trade is still debating how small and how much price rationing is needed.  In this episode we also dive into what this all means for the 2020-21 corn and soybean crops too. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

Sept 19 vs March 20 Corn

The Sep 19 vs March 20 corn spread is an interesting one.  Full carry is about 46 cents.  Old crop carryout is going to be 2.4 billion but new crop will be tight.  A close above a 9 cent carry is bullish.  A close below the red trend line is bearish.  This old crop vs new crop spread is a good one to watch.  Margin is $250 per spread which makes it accessible to all traders.  Seasonally this is a bear spread as the crop is made and weather premium comes out of the market.  With the late planting I think Sept vs March holds up in value for a while longer, but has the risk of coming down significantly the closer we get to First Notice Day.  Stay tuned!

Sept 19 vs March 20 Corn

 

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If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

 

 

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
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Twitter: @Turners_Take

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