Turner’s Take Podcast: CBOT Range Bound – July 16, 2019
Turner's Take Podcast

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The CBOT remains range bound as traders debate supply (acres and yield) and demand (exports and feed).  The market will have little guidance from the USDA until the August 12th WASDE report.  Weather forecasts have temps getting cooler with more precipitations.  The US will have a smaller corn and soybean crop this year, but the trade is still debating how small and how much price rationing is needed.  In this episode we also dive into what this all means for the 2020-21 corn and soybean crops too. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

Sept 19 vs March 20 Corn

The Sep 19 vs March 20 corn spread is an interesting one.  Full carry is about 46 cents.  Old crop carryout is going to be 2.4 billion but new crop will be tight.  A close above a 9 cent carry is bullish.  A close below the red trend line is bearish.  This old crop vs new crop spread is a good one to watch.  Margin is $250 per spread which makes it accessible to all traders.  Seasonally this is a bear spread as the crop is made and weather premium comes out of the market.  With the late planting I think Sept vs March holds up in value for a while longer, but has the risk of coming down significantly the closer we get to First Notice Day.  Stay tuned!

Sept 19 vs March 20 Corn


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Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
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About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.