Grains Report 07/16/19

Crop Progress
Date 7-Jul 30-Jun 2018 Avg
Cotton Squaring 60 47 70 69
Cotton Setting Bolls 20 13 30 25
Corn Silking 17 8 59 42
Soybeans Emerged 95 90 100 99
Soybeans Blooming 22 10 62 49
Sorghum Headed 24 22 30 31
Sorghum Coloring 14 13 19 19
Rice Headed 24 16 30 31
Peanuts Pegging 67 58 67 66
Oats Headed 87 74 95 95
Winter Wheat Harvested 57 47 72 71
Spring Wheat Headed 78 56 91 87
Barley Headed 75 55 88 89

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 3 12 29 47 9
Cotton Last Week 2 17 27 47 7
Cotton Last Year 10 18 31 34 7

Corn This Week 3 9 30 48 10
Corn Last Week 3 9 31 47 10
Corn Last Year 3 6 19 51 21

Soybeans This Week 3 9 34 46 8
Soybeans Last Week 3 9 35 46 7
Soybeans Last Year 2 6 23 53 16

Sorghum This Week 1 2 23 61 13
Sorghum Last Week 1 2 24 61 12
Sorghum Last Year 5 12 36 43 4

Rice This Week 1 6 26 50 17
Rice Last Week 1 6 27 49 17
Rice Last Year 1 5 25 56 13

Oats This Week 2 5 25 57 11
Oats Last Week 2 5 28 56 9
Oats Last Year 4 3 22 58 13

Peanuts This Week 1 5 25 61 8
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 27 60 8
Peanuts Last Year 1 3 27 60 9

Barley This Week 0 5 19 62 14
Barley Last Week 1 4 22 63 10
Barley Last Year 1 2 12 70 15

Spring Wheat This Week 0 4 20 66 10
Spring Wheat Last Week 0 3 19 70 8
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 3 16 67 13

Pastures and Ranges This Week 2 6 24 54 14
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 2 6 24 54 14
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 9 15 29 39 8

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 15
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 11, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/11/2019 07/04/2019 07/12/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 734 73 1,787 880
CORN 676,485 721,419 1,259,101 43,157,694 48,497,646
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 24 24
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 0 299 1,098
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 55,291 70,143 744 1,763,863 4,786,120
SOYBEANS 854,373 761,649 637,535 38,718,104 50,980,358
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 335
WHEAT 315,358 616,261 481,045 2,915,708 2,232,055
Total 1,901,507 2,170,206 2,378,498 86,557,479 106,498,540
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower, The selling came mostly from funds amid talk that US prices are too high to attract world buyers. The harvest pace for Winter Wheat is active at this time and the condition ratings for Spring Wheat improved. Private sources in eastern Europe and Russia are reporting lower harvested yields again , so world prices could catch up to those from the US. But, world buyers need to show up and buy. There have not been many tender announcements lately and the market needs some business. Most buyers will continue to look to Europe and Russia to buy as those prices are still lower. The US Winter Wheat harvest has produced strong yields, so the overall price structure for US Wheat can stay weak until the demand for US Wheat starts to improve.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms off tomorrow, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers off and on this week. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 506, 498, and 494 September, with resistance at 517, 519, and 528 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 440, 431, and 425 September, with resistance at 458, 463, and 472 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 531, 524, and 521 September, and resistance is at 538, 543, and 547 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower before the release of the weekly crop progress and condition reports. USDA showed that progress remains behind normal but did show slight improvement in the overall crop. Weather is still important to watch as the hurricane came into Louisiana and became a tropical storm. The system threatens to bring flooding rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas and at least some of the crops in these areas can be damaged or lost. The reports from many growing areas suggest that any crop damage will be minimal as the rains and flooding did not appear to be severe enough or widespread enough to call for major damage to the heads of the grain. The Indian monsoon showed above normal rains for central and western parts of the country, but Rice areas in the south of the country continued to get below normal rains. Indian Rice production might be stressed now and production might be less this year due to the weaker monsoon rains.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms in all areas. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1220 September. Support is at 1178, 1172, and 1166 September, with resistance at 1202, 1212, and 1224 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on forecasts for some beneficial rains to appear in parts of the Corn Belt by the end of next week. Also, some showers left from the tropical system in the Delta could bring some help to southern and eastern Midwest areas over the next few days. Overall, the west should stay hot and dry. USDA showed marginal improvement in the crop condition reports last night, but many wonder why given the reports of heat rolling the leaves and stress to the crops. The export inspections report showed less than strong demand, and demand for US Corn will need to improve in order to send futures prices sharply higher. There is still a good chance for Corn to trade above $5.00 per bushel given the stressful weather, but to trade much above that level will require improved demand of for crop conditions to get worse. Longer term forecasts still call for more hot and dry weather in August, so there will be just a short window for US Midwest crops to get better, especially in Western areas where conditions are likely to stay hotter and drier. The crop is very late this year as much of the Corn was planted one to two months behind normal dates. It is mostly very short and at least some of it might not be mature before normal first freeze dates. The crop was planted into mostly very wet soils and the soils have compacted due to the rain and the equipment used to plant and fertilize the crop. The root structure is not as strong as it might normally be and there have been reports of stress from leaves rolling in parts of Illinois and Indiana.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 472 September. Support is at 445, 436, and 427 September, and resistance is at 458, 460, and 469 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 278, 276, and 272 September, and resistance is at 282, 283, and 285 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower on ideas of improving Midwest weather. some beneficial rains to appear in parts of the Corn Belt by the end of next week. Also, some showers left from the tropical system in the Delta could bring some help to southern and eastern Midwest areas over the next few days. Overall, the west should stay hot and dry. USDA showed marginal improvement in the crop condition reports last night, but many wonder why given the reports of heat adding to stress to the crops. Like Corn, the Soybeans were mostly planted very late and are very small. Hot and dry weather now will inhibit growth potential as the crops are not all that well established. It is now a weather market and the forecasts for this month and into August will be key for longer term price direction. USDA showed that South America will have plenty of Soybeans to offer and this fact will inhibit the upside potential for prices of Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 930 August. Support is at 893, 890, and 884 August, and resistance is at 918, 923, and 928 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 319.00 August. Support is at 308.00, 304.00, and 300.00 August, and resistance is at 316.00, 317.00, and 320.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2780, 2760, and 2730 August, with resistance at 2860, 2870, and 2930 August.

Alerts History
• 15-Jul-2019 11:00:05 AM – U.S. JUNE SOYBEAN CRUSH 148.843 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
• 15-Jul-2019 11:00:05 AM – U.S. JUNE SOYOIL STOCKS 1.535 BILLION LBS – NOPA
• 15-Jul-2019 11:00:05 AM – U.S. JUNE SOYMEAL EXPORTS 554,867 TONS – NOPA
NOPA June soy crush drops to 21-month low of 148.843 million bushels – Reuters News
15-Jul-2019 11:00:23 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
• NOTE: For a table detailing NOPA data by region, see Eikon page 0#SEED-US-STAT
By Karl Plume
CHICAGO, July 15 (Reuters) – The U.S. soybean crush dropped by more than expected in June to the lowest level in 21 months, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.
NOPA members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 148.843 million bushels of soybeans in June, down from 154.796 million bushels in May and 159.228 million bushels crushed in June 2018.
It was the smallest monthly soybean crush since September 2017, according to NOPA data.
The crush had been expected to dip modestly to 154.405 million bushels, based on estimates gathered by Reuters from seven analysts. Forecasts ranged from 147.937 million to 164.5 million bushels, with a median of 152.2 million. (Full Story)
Flood-related downtime curbed operations at several processing plants last month following an exceptionally wet spring across much of the central United States.
Soybean oil stocks declined to a six-month low of 1.535 billion pounds by the end of June, down from 1.581 billion pounds at the end of May and below the 1.766 billion pounds at the end of June 2018, NOPA said.
Analysts, on average, expected soyoil stocks to slip to 1.527 billion pounds based on estimates gathered from four analysts. Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 1.490 billion to 1.595 billion pounds, with a median of 1.511 billion.
June soymeal exports fell to a 21-month low of 554,867 tons, down from 617,318 tons in May and 857,275 tons in June 2018, according to NOPA.
(Reporting by Karl Plume)
(( karl.plume@thomsonreuters.com ; +1 312 408 8704; Reuters Messaging: karl.plume.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net ))

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower with Chicago. Growing conditions are improving after rains in the last couple of weeks. The trading volumes were light yesterday with not much speculative activity seen. Palm Oil was a little lower in consolidation trading. The stronger demand shown by SGS helped support futures, but there are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. GAPKI showed that Indonesian stocks are up 10% for May. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 444.00, 442.00, and 437.00 November, with resistance at 452.00, 457.00, and 459.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1880 October, with resistance at 1990, 2010, and 2030 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry today and tomorrow, but scattered showers possible late in the week, especially south and east of Chicago. Temperatures should be near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +56 Sep +162 Sep +45 Sep +57 Aug N/A N/A
August +52 Sep +50 Sep +56 Aug
September +53 Sep +70 Sep +35 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
July
August
September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 15
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 440.70 up 3.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 456.90 dn 3.80
Basis: Vancouver 466.90 dn 3.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which Ware in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 492.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 492.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 497.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 517.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 497.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 497.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 502.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 522.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 477.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 345.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 1910.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 133.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1057)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 154,900 lots, or 5.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,430 3,434 3,380 3,380 3,432 3,398 -34 138,814 143,626
Nov-19 3,451 3,492 3,426 3,440 3,488 3,457 -31 48 338
Jan-20 3,430 3,437 3,400 3,401 3,439 3,414 -25 14,362 55,114
Mar-20 – – – 3,427 3,427 3,427 0 0 30
May-20 3,525 3,531 3,508 3,513 3,530 3,518 -12 1,676 26,308
Jul-20 – – – 3,516 3,516 3,516 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 464,258 lots, or 9.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,926 1,927 1,920 1,927 1,924 1,924 0 266,176 839,400
Nov-19 1,955 1,957 1,948 1,954 1,952 1,953 1 31,264 350,994
Jan-20 1,987 1,989 1,982 1,987 1,987 1,985 -2 156,424 637,162
Mar-20 2,003 2,007 2,001 2,003 2,005 2,004 -1 176 2,248
May-20 2,046 2,048 2,042 2,046 2,047 2,045 -2 9,942 112,994
Jul-20 2,085 2,085 2,062 2,069 2,072 2,073 1 276 208
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,186,718 lots, or 61.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 2,853 2,854 2,820 2,833 2,866 2,837 -29 244 1,120
Sep-19 2,851 2,851 2,799 2,813 2,845 2,822 -23 1,597,376 1,582,776
Nov-19 2,893 2,893 2,832 2,846 2,866 2,861 -5 75,370 221,156
Dec-19 2,889 2,898 2,841 2,859 2,897 2,853 -44 704 1,202
Jan-20 2,903 2,909 2,855 2,871 2,905 2,878 -27 455,522 664,952
Mar-20 2,832 2,832 2,800 2,809 2,845 2,808 -37 30 720
May-20 2,768 2,774 2,740 2,750 2,768 2,753 -15 57,458 213,060
Jul-20 2,789 2,789 2,741 2,741 2,773 2,763 -10 14 44
Palm Oil
Turnover: 307,860 lots, or 13.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 4,254 4,254 4,254 0 0 0
Sep-19 4,228 4,240 4,212 4,220 4,212 4,222 10 245,984 610,402
Oct-19 – – – 4,304 4,304 4,304 0 0 16
Nov-19 – – – 4,332 4,322 4,332 10 0 16
Dec-19 – – – 4,478 4,478 4,478 0 0 10
Jan-20 4,442 4,448 4,422 4,430 4,428 4,432 4 54,868 276,546
Feb-20 – – – 4,472 4,472 4,472 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,598 4,598 4,598 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,628 4,628 4,628 0 0 2
May-20 4,664 4,668 4,640 4,648 4,630 4,648 18 7,008 26,228
Jun-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 371,484 lots, or 20.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 5,266 5,266 5,266 0 0 32
Sep-19 5,460 5,462 5,424 5,440 5,442 5,440 -2 277,338 651,642
Nov-19 – – – 5,492 5,492 5,492 0 0 6
Dec-19 – – – 5,524 5,524 5,524 0 0 28
Jan-20 5,650 5,652 5,586 5,606 5,610 5,606 -4 89,538 287,518
Mar-20 – – – 5,610 5,610 5,610 0 0 12
May-20 5,718 5,748 5,690 5,700 5,722 5,706 -16 4,608 37,638
Jul-20 – – – 5,700 5,700 5,700 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.