The information and opinions expressed below are based on my analysis of price behavior and chart activity

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

If you like this article and would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list -Click here 

July Corn (Daily)

July Corn closed down 13 cents today, at 4.70 ¼, the lowest settlement since April 4th.  That’s a significant level below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages (purple 4.79 ¼, green 4.79, respectively today) and does not look friendly to my eye.  The 5-and 10-day moving averages are also above the market (blue and red, 4.80 3/8 and 4.84 5/8, respectively) and made a bearish crossover last week.   That 5-6 cent range has 4 significant (to me) moving averages there and will be tough resistance.  That said, if/when it’s able to close back above those levels, new highs for the year may be in order.  The first support level pictured on the chart is the 23% retracement, which also, coincidentally, seems to run through the rough mid-range of most of the March trade activity.  The next support level that I see is the 200-day average at 4.60 5/8.  Beyond that, I’d look to the long-term trendline (grey) near 4.55 or so and then 4.50.  I think that aggressive and well-margined traders may do well to consider short futures positions, perhaps at or near Monday’s low of 4.76 ¼, with a risk/reverse perhaps 10 cents above that.     

July Corn (Weekly)

As of this writing, July Corn is down 15 ¼ cents this week.  I think if you look at the chart above, one of the things you might notice is that it’s been in a downtrend for the entire pictured life.  This view goes back 3 years and the high on the left side is the contract high.  (6.10 ½, last week of April 2022)  Corn has certainly been in a bearish trend for most of this past 3 years, hitting a contract low in August 2024, at 4.21 ¾.  The rally from the lows ended in mid-February at 5.21 ½, just above the 50% retracement (5.16 ½). eclipsing the May of 2024 high.  Higher highs might be a sign of trend change. Prices immediately sold off, and then spent 6 weeks trading both side of the 200-week moving average (purple, 4.63 5/8 today) before jumping aggressively the first week here in April. Higher lows could also be a sign of trend change.   Since then, Corn prices have been declining.  The 5- and 10-week moving averages crossed into bullish territory this week, but are now above the market and offering potential resistance.  Those are on the chart in blue and red, at 4.82 and 4.76, respectively.  I think the 200 week at 4.63 5/8 could offer some support, as is the light grey trendline, which is roughly 4.55 today.  That trend line is drawn off of the Aug ’24 and March ’25 low and is critical, I think, for Corn to try and change, or maintain, the trend.   Or perhaps, Corn is just finding a new range to trade in (4.30-5.20) for 2025.  What do you think?

If you like what you’ve read here and would like to see more like this, please Click here and sign up for our daily futures market email. 

Jefferson Fosse  Walsh Trading

Direct 312 957 8248 Toll Free 800 556 9411

jfosse@walshtrading.com   www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.