Analysts Warn the Clock Is Ticking for Nvidia’s Data Center Business. How Should You Play NVDA Stock Here?

NVIDIA Corp video chip-by Antonio Bordunovi via iStock

After a spectacular run over the last two years, Nvidia (NVDA) stock has pulled back in the last few months. Valued at a market cap of $2.86 trillion, NVDA stock is down 22% below all-time highs as investors are worried about decelerating revenue and earnings growth. 

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Investment bank Piper Sandler maintained its “Overweight” rating on Nvidia stock with a $150 price target despite flagging potential headwinds for the chip giant. The firm’s analysis suggests approximately 6.45% of Nvidia's data center revenue, about $9.8 billion annually, could be vulnerable if customer capital expenditures slow and its Chinese business fails to recover.

Despite impressive 114.2% revenue growth over the past year, Nvidia could see earnings per share decline by roughly $0.40 under a worst-case scenario. The analysis projects a wide potential price range between $76.25 and $126.75 based on a 25 times earnings multiple, depending on market conditions.

However, Nvidia continues to strengthen its position in the U.S. technology ecosystem. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has also engaged with U.S. lawmakers regarding Huawei’s AI advancements as discussions continue around new chip export restrictions.

Nvidia Combats Fears With Continued Innovation 

Nvidia continues to demonstrate strong growth momentum as it advances its AI infrastructure strategy in 2025. In a recent tech conference, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress highlighted key developments across their ecosystem.

Kress emphasized that despite Blackwell’s introduction, Hopper remains an essential product, still experiencing sequential growth as customers complete existing data center builds. She noted that the company delivered $11 billion in Blackwell revenue in fiscal Q4 2025 (which ended in January) and plans to continue expediting this “very strong ramp” throughout Q1.

Huang outlined Nvidia’s roadmap for scaling AI computing power, revealing the Grace Blackwell NVLink 72 architectures with Dynamo, offering 40x the performance of Hopper for reasoning models. Notably, Nvidia plans annual product refreshes. Blackwell Ultra will be released in the second half of 2025, followed by Vera Rubin in 2026 and Rubin Ultra in 2027.

Is NVDA Stock Undervalued?

Nvidia’s sales increased from $26.9 billion in fiscal 2023 to $130.5 billion in fiscal 2025, indicating a compounded annual growth rate of 120%. Comparatively, adjusted earnings expanded by 199% annually from $0.33 per share in 2023 to $2.99 per share in 2025. 

Despite its massive size, Nvidia continues to grow at an enviable pace and trades at a reasonable multiple. NVDA stock is priced at 26.5x forward earnings, below its 10-year average of 36x. If the tech stock maintains its current multiple, it will trade around $170 per share in early 2027. 

Out of the 44 analysts covering NVDA stock, 37 recommend “Strong Buy,” two recommend “Moderate Buy,” four recommend “Hold,” and one recommends “Strong Sell.” The average target price for NVDA stock is $166, 43% above the current trading price. 

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On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.