August WTI crude oil (CLQ25) today is up +1.76 (+2.64%), and August RBOB gasoline (RBQ25) is up +0.0270 (+1.25%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices today are sharply higher on speculation that President Trump on Monday might announce sanctions on Russian energy exports.  Crude oil also has carryover support from Bloomberg's report on Thursday that OPEC+ is discussing a pause in its oil production increases from October.  

On the bearish side for crude is today's stronger dollar and heightened trade tensions that risk slowing global economic growth and energy demand.  President Trump said late Thursday he will raise tariffs on some Canadian products to from the current 25% and that he plans to impose blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% on most US trade partners.

Crude prices jumped today after President Trump said he plans to make a "major statement" on Russia on Monday and reiterated criticism of Russian President Putin for continuing the war in Ukraine.  Speculation is that Mr. Trump will impose sanctions on Russian energy exports or express support for a Senate bill that has been endorsed by 85 senators that would levy 500% tariffs on China and India if they make any purchases of Russian energy.

Bloomberg reported Thursday that OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases from October, following its next monthly hike in September of 548,000 barrels.  OPEC+ may be concerned about a slowdown in global oil demand in the second half of this year that could lead to a supply glut if the group keeps boosting production,  The International Energy Agency said inventories have been accumulating at a rate of 1 million bpd, and global markets face a surplus equivalent to 1.5% of global crude consumption in Q4 of this year.

Concern about a global oil glut is negative for crude prices.  On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to raise its crude production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning August 1, exceeding expectations of a 411,000 bpd increase.   Saudi Arabia also stated that additional similar-sized increases in crude output could follow, which is viewed as a strategy to reduce oil prices and penalize overproducing OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq.  OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026.  On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to a 411,000 bpd increase in crude production for July, following the same 411,000 bpd hike for June.  June crude production rose +360,000 bpd to a 1.5-year high of 28.10 million bpd.

Heightened tensions in the Middle East are supportive of crude prices after Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked another merchant ship in the Red Sea on Tuesday, the second such attack following Sunday's attack on a vessel sailing through the Red Sea.  The attacks on shipping could boost freight rates and insurance costs for shippers, making crude supplies from the Middle East more expensive.  The attacks have already prompted retaliatory strikes by Israeli jets on Houthi targets and could prompt strikes from the US as well.

An increase in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bearish for oil prices.  Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days rose by +3.6% w/w to 79.55 million bbl in the week ended July 4.

Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 4 were -8.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -23.6% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending July 4 fell -0.4% w/w to 13.385 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd from the week of December 6.

Baker Hughes reported last Thursday that active US oil rigs in the week ending July 4 fell by -7 to a 3.75-year low of 425 rigs.  Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.25-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.