WTI Crude Oil Futures (August Futures)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 66.98, -1.47 [-2.15%]

WTI Crude Oil futures fell yesterday after President Trump announced higher tariffs on Russia in lieu of tighter sanctions on the country’s oil exports.

After the President teased the Russia announcement last week, markets started inflating risk premiums in anticipation that tighter sanctions would be announced this week.

Monday featured a choppy trade across global markets as traders squared positions into today’s CPI report.

August Crude fell to our key support level of 66.85*** as dip buyers were uncovered.

OPEC+ released fairly bullish demand estimates which should be taken with a grain of salt. The group has consistently over-forecasted demand for the past few year and traders generally discount these demand figures by various amounts.

Today, futures are trading -0.05 [-0.07%] to 66.93

After the US closed, Nvidia issued a statement that it would be able to export key AI chips to China. This buoyed equity markets and risk sentiment overnight, as traders interpreted the news as a positive signal regarding trade negotiations.

Overnight Chinese data was mixed, with higher-than-expected GDP and Industrial Production, but lower-than-expected Retail Sales figures. The mixed data led to a sell-off of Chinese equities as markets attempted to signal that further stimulus would be necessary.

One bright spot coming out of China was that refinery runs posted their highest figures in over two years as onshore refiners took advantage of their improved margins. This is a trend to watch closely.

This morning, the US CPI came in slightly softer than expected, but inflationary signals were present within the report. Markets are trading risk-on in the initial minutes following the release of the number.

There is a Financial Times report that President Trump offered to strike Moscow directly while talking with Zelinsky this morning. I am not seeing much confirmation on this report but this is something to keep a close eye on as tensions escalate.

Data Releases:

N/A

Technical Analysis:

August futures traded into key support yesterday after President Trump’s announcement regarding Russia disappointed markets. The risk-on tone in equities could help drive crude higher, alongside the news that President Trump is encouraging strikes on Moscow directly.

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at…

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