5 | Big, beautiful bean oil demand

Soybean oil is in beast mode—up 2.6% today and an impressive 18% since the EPA’s proposed 2026–27 RVO and RIN “haircut” scheme was announced on June 13. D4 RINs have followed a similar trajectory. Trading below $1.00 prior to the EPA’s release, they’ve rallied more than 25% and are now hovering near $1.22.

Yuge changes to the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit are also lending support to soybean oil and RIN markets. The removal of ILUC penalties on crop-based biofuels, along with the exclusion of any fuels made from feedstocks originating outside the U.S., Canada, or Mexico, are reinforcing a bullish sentiment.

4 | Fair Share

Meanwhile, soybean meal continues to grind to new lows, as oil holds firm on expectations for stronger biofuel demand in 2026–2027. Managed money continues to hold a record short position in meal while maintaining length in oil—pushing the spread between the two to an all-time high.

It’s particularly interesting to compare this soy product position spread with oilshare, which has been steadily climbing and is now approaching record territory itself.

3 | Bin Buster

Crop ratings remain above average, ranking among the highest recorded for this point in the growing season.

Historically, similar early-July ratings have translated to above-trend yields by harvest — notably in 2016 (104% of trend) and 2018 (103% of trend).

Every 1% yield above the 2025 trend of 181 bpa adds roughly 160 million bushels to total production.

2 | Deal or No Deal?

President Trump is back to threatening larger tariffs on every Tom, Dick, and Harry - including five of our top six ag export trading partners after the 90-day pause expired last week.

Effective Aug 1:
Mexico 30%
Canada 35%
Japan 25%
EU 30%
S Korea 25%

China is spared - for now. We have a month before their "deal" deadline in mid-August.

1 | Getting squeezed by the shorts

Checking in on managed money’s sizable net short in corn:

For the full version of this post, visit NoBullAg.Substack.com.

Thanks!